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Montag, 17. Februar 2014

JCS Comments to T Piketty's Book on " Capitalism in the 21th century"


Hi folks,

the french economist Thomas Piketty has just published a great book on " Capitalisme au 21' siècle",
the english version is due to come out this spring.
I have read the full 950 pages of the french version, with great delight, but do have a couple of comments that I did elaborate during and after. As usual, I did not agree with everything, worked on some of the formulas, did my own calculations and simulations, and hope that it might help to clarify our views.

 You can find my short paper within the following link:

JCS Comments to T Piketty's Book

and the Resumé can be read right here:
A few months ago, Thomas Piketty published a great book about Capital in our new Century, and pointed out that the ratio of Capital to Revenue is growing again and may soon reach levels not seen since the eve of WW1, that the share of revenues that goes to capital is also reaching old heights again, that both Capital and Revenue are distributed ever more inequally.
These being trends of large concern to Mr Piketty, and not only him, his proposal is to have both revenues and capital seriously taxed in progressive manners, in a way that wealth, purchasing, decision, operation and political power are well enough distrbuted to make revolutions and wars about these issues obsolete.
After going though the book, I set out to have my own thoughts and calculations and came up with the following facts and opinions, detailed in the following chapters and summarized in the conclusions right here:

a)      I fully admire and appreciate the work that has gone into Mr Piketty’s book, and agree that the growing inequality of distribution of both revenue and capital is up to no good, and that the bulk of revenue should really go to labor

b)       I also agree that progressive taxation on both revenue and capital are needed to keep things in check, and to avoid the concentration of large amounts of purchasing and political power  in the hands of the few.  These taxes should be organized on a european, or better on a worldwide level

c)      I am not so sure about the inevitability of endless capital accumulation per se, as even in times of low growth, the formula B2 :             BE’ = S% -  BE * G%             stands for the limits thereof.
But recession has to be avoided in that respect, as that will make things really go haywire as the formula also shows.

d)      I also think that it is more relevant to consider the inequality S% > G% ,
rather than R% > G%, as it is savings that accumulate to capital.

e)      I am not sure either about what level of BE Capital/Revenue ratio would be optimal for what purpose, so while it is interesting to see how things have been through time, we should think about what we would need or want, or dismiss it as an lesser variable.

I am not sure about the future of return on capital R% either, and could well envision lower rates if capital is plenty, and bank interest is cheap. Also, I somehow miss a contribution the discussion on the impact of our debt system upon our economic life.


That's it, follow the link if you want the details, comments are welcome at jcswork@pt.lu
cheers
Jean-Claude

Donnerstag, 9. Januar 2014

is "full money" enough to stabilize the economy ?

Hi folks,

a couple of days ago, the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) had half a page on the monetary Modernization effort in Switzerland, where the MoMoCh team is preparing a signature collection for a referendum on "Vollgeld", full money.
The NZZ even stated (with horror) that the initiative aims at forbidding the banks to create money....

So I thought it would be a good moment in time to see what the "Vollgeld" initiative could or would call for, and evaluate the effects + & - in a few words, that have grown to a few pages.
It is all written in german, here is the link in the title
Reicht das Vollgeld-Konzept aus, um die Wirtschaft zu stabilisieren?

in english, it means: is "full money" enough to stabilize the economy ?

comments welcome

cheers
Jean-Claude


Samstag, 4. Januar 2014

correction of formula on public debt & deficit in Boskin paper and Schemmann book

Hi folks,

as I read Michael Schemmann's 2010 book about "European Monetary Reform", I stumbled onto a couple of formulas for the mathematically intended, they are relating public debt, growth, public deficit and interest rate. These are interesting subjects that I touched a couple of months ago in my treatise on perpetual public deficits and debt

A quick plausibility check showed that at least one of the formulas was wrong. The formulas were referenced to a paper by M.J.Boskin, so I looked them up there, and there the wrong one was wrong as well.
So I set out to determine the correct one, to identify the (typing) mistakes, and to look at how useful the formulas are when evaluating the sustainability of public deficits.
You find this information here, under the title:
"Correction of the formula on public debt as published by Mr Michael J. Boskin in 1988, and referenced to by Mr Michael Schemmann in 2010"                            by Jean-Claude Schmitz.